New Orleans Saints at a Crossroads with Alvin Kamara
New Orleans, La. -- The New Orleans Saints find themselves at a pivotal juncture regarding their star running back, Alvin Kamara. Kamara's future with the team remains uncertain after he skipped the final practice of minicamp last week, citing contract-related issues as the primary reason for his early departure, according to his agent, Brad Cicala.
While Kamara did not attend OTAs this offseason, he did return for the mandatory minicamp, a routine he has followed for several years. Despite the uncertainty, Kamara expressed last year that he wishes to remain in New Orleans for the long term. He is expected to be a focal point of the Saints' offense in 2024 under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Kamara has thrived in previous Saints offenses, catching at least 80 passes in each of his first four seasons and scoring double-digit touchdowns in 2017, 2018, and 2020.
Comparison with Christian McCaffrey
Kubiak's recent background adds an intriguing layer to Kamara's situation. As the passing game coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers last season, Kubiak oversaw a system where running back Christian McCaffrey excelled, rushing for a career-high 1,459 yards. McCaffrey, a first-round pick for the Carolina Panthers in 2017, received a two-year extension in June that will pay him an average of $19 million and guarantee him $24 million. Kamara, who turns 29 on July 25, is one year older than McCaffrey.
According to the Roster Management System, running backs with at least four seasons of 100 rushing attempts typically peak at age 27 and start to decline in yardage thereafter. Rushing attempts also peak at age 27, while rushing average peaks between ages 24-26. This statistical trend raises questions about Kamara's future production and value.
Factors Affecting Kamara's Performance
External factors have contributed to Kamara's statistical decline. He was suspended for the first three games of the 2023 season for violating the league's personal conduct policy. Additionally, the Saints faced offensive line issues and struggled with red zone scoring during the first half of the season. These challenges impacted Kamara's overall performance.
Financially, Kamara's cap number of $18.55 million in 2024 is the highest on the team, owing to contract restructures in 2022 and 2023. A restructure would not provide Kamara with any new money but would temporarily create cap space by converting a part of his base salary into a signing bonus. This move would lower his cap number for the current year while increasing it in future years.
Financial Implications and Future Outlook
If the Saints chose to release Kamara in 2025 without altering his contract, they could save anywhere from $18.9 million to $25 million against the salary cap. However, this number is influenced by Kamara's inflated $22.4 million base salary for 2025, which would likely be addressed if Kamara stays with the team. The Saints have about a month before they report to training camp in Irvine, California.
Notably, Kamara missed five practices at the end of the 2020 offseason before receiving a new contract. He is currently signed through the 2025 season, but the financial complexities and his age may prompt the Saints to reconsider their long-term plans.
Quotes
"I haven't had a chance to talk to him so I'm not sure why he wasn't out here for the rest of practice," said head coach Dennis Allen.
Despite the uncertainty, Kamara remains positive about his future with the Saints. "I want a lifetime contract. I want to be here forever," he expressed. Kamara is also optimistic about the new offensive system. "You look at the history of this offense; I'll just say it's good for the running back," he added. "You watch some of the past offenses that Klint has been able to operate, and most recently, you look at Christian [McCaffrey] and what he was able to do. I'm excited for that."
Kamara's focus remains on contributing to the team rather than individual stats. "I'm not a stat dude. I don't stack myself up against other guys. You talk about Christian and all, me and Christian talk. I enjoy watching him play. I enjoy when he's able to do the things he does. Personally, I enjoy when I'm having success. But I think my message has been the same since I've been here ... whatever's asked of me, I just do that."
New quarterback Derek Carr also had high praise for Kamara. "There was a play last year where I handed him the ball, and I remember I was like, 'Well, that's not open.' ... I turned around, and he hit an explosive burst that I've never seen before. And when he showed up [at minicamp], I handed him the ball, and it just feels different."
Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has been in constant communication with Kamara. "I have talked to him when he was here the last couple of days. He's been great, talked to him on the phone, even when he was gone [for OTAs]. We've been in constant communication."
As the Saints approach training camp, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining Kamara's future with the team. The situation remains fluid, but both sides seem invested in finding a resolution that benefits all parties involved.