At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins experienced a heart-wrenching 4-3 loss to the Cleveland Guardians, squandering a comfortable three-run lead. The game turned on a dramatic, game-winning two-run homer by Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning off Griffin Jax, sealing yet another bitter defeat for the struggling Twins.
This loss serves as a microcosm of the Twins' recent struggles; they have dropped 18 of their last 27 games. Despite this downturn, the Twins retain a precarious hold on the third AL wild-card spot, with their lead dwindled to just 1 1/2 games. To add to their woes, the Twins' postseason odds have plummeted from 95.4% on September 5 to a still respectable but diminished 76.4%, according to FanGraphs.
Much of the Twins' downfall can be traced to their lackluster offensive performance. In 12 of those 27 games, the team failed to muster more than three runs, exemplified by their .236 batting average, .296 on-base percentage, and .381 slugging percentage. These hitting woes are exacerbated when the bases are empty, as the Twins are batting just .272 in such situations, ranking them fourth worst in the MLB.
The gravity of the situation is not lost on the team's players and management. "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking," laments Pablo López. "Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
Rocco Baldelli, the Twins' manager, echoes this sentiment: "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together." Baldelli's frustration is palpable as he adds, "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."
Compounded Problems in the Bullpen
Complicating matters further is the performance of the bullpen and starting rotation. Once ranked tenth in the league in win probability added (plus-3.41) with a 3.84 ERA over their first 123 games, the bullpen now sports a distressing 5.47 ERA over the last 27 games and a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
Griffin Jax, who surrendered the game-deciding homer to Manzardo, captures the bullpen's sentiment: "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff." This exhaustion is understandable, as the team has played an exhausting 17 games in the past 18 days.
The starting rotation fares little better, posting a 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start during this same 27-game span. This poor form often leaves the bullpen overexposed and vulnerable in late-game situations. The Twins have carried leads into the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions but failed to secure the wins.
There is a glimmer of hope with the anticipated return of Max Kepler, whose presence could provide a much-needed spark to the lineup. Additionally, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown signs of life with a combined 5-for-15 performance, including two doubles and a homer, indicating potential improvements at the plate.
The Race Toward the Postseason
The Twins, every game now crucial, find themselves being chased by both the Detroit Tigers and the Seattle Mariners, who are two games back in the standings. It's worth noting that the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams. Recent form has made the chase more intense, with the Tigers boasting a 23-10 record over their last 33 games.
In a strategic move to bolster their pitching depth, the Twins claimed left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. With a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, Irvin could serve as a versatile piece in an otherwise beleaguered pitching staff. Derek Falvey, the Twins' President of Baseball Operations, explained the decision: "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
The road ahead for the Twins is fraught with challenges, but also opportunities for redemption. As Baldelli aptly put it, "We have to put nine innings together." The team's ability to heed this call could very well determine the outcome of their tumultuous season.