In a highly anticipated showdown this afternoon at 2:20 PM ET, the Diamondbacks will take on the Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago. As slight money line favorites at -106, the Diamondbacks are set to maintain their recent streak of impressive performances on the road.
Pitching Matchup
Justin Steele will be on the mound for the Cubs. Steele, who has been a reliable force for Chicago, has made 14 starts this season, building a record of 2-3 with a commendable 2.71 ERA. Known for his consistency, Steele has turned in eight quality starts this year. His most recent outing was particularly notable, where he pitched seven scoreless innings. However, the challenge intensifies for Steele when pitching at home, where his ERA stands at 3.16 compared to his road ERA of 2.96. Despite these figures, Steele's control and command make him a pivotal player for the Cubs.
Facing Steele will be Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. Nelson brings a 6-6 record with a 4.99 ERA into today's game. Though he has a higher ERA and WHIP of 1.42, Nelson has shown recent resilience. Over his last six starts, he hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs. The right-hander will aim to continue this trend and provide stability for Arizona's pitching staff.
Team Performance and Standings
The Diamondbacks enter this matchup with a 49-48 record. They currently find themselves second in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by seven games. The team’s recent form has been promising, especially on the road, where they’ve posted a 4-1 record in their last five away games. This has been complemented by excellent run line results in the same span.
Offensively, Arizona has been robust, averaging five runs per game, which ranks them second-best in MLB. Power hitters like Christian Walker, with 22 homers, and Ketel Marte, with 19 homers, have been crucial in driving the team’s offense. However, their recent 8-7 loss to the Blue Jays, after initially leading by seven runs, serves as a cautionary tale.
The Cubs, on the other hand, have a 47-51 record and sit fifth in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 8.5 games. Despite these standings, the Cubs have shown resilience, going 7-3 in their last ten games and posting a solid 4-1 record in their last five home games. Their divisional record, however, stands at a less impressive 12-21.
Offensively, the Cubs average 4.2 runs per game and have an overall batting average of .235. Key contributors include Nico Hoerner, who has hit .378 over his last nine games, and Christopher Morel, who has belted three homers in his last eight games. Not long ago, the Cubs secured an 8-3 victory over the Cardinals, aided by Jameson Taillon's 5 2/3 innings of three-earned run pitching.
Betting Insights
Today's game has an over/under line of 7.5 runs. Both teams are riding three-game over streaks, indicating a propensity for high-scoring affairs. Notably, 84.5% of Diamondbacks games and 67.3% of Cubs games surpass the 7.5 run line. When the over/under line is set at 7.5, the Diamondbacks hold a 6-4 record, while the Cubs stand at 12-10.
Projections suggest Justin Steele will have six strikeouts, conceding fewer runs than Ryne Nelson, who is expected to have four strikeouts. This pitching disparity could prove pivotal in a contest predicted to end with a narrow Diamondbacks' victory, 5-4.
Final Thoughts
With both teams showing strong offensive and recent performance trends, today's game at Wrigley Field promises to be an exciting encounter. The Diamondbacks will look to close the gap in the NL West, while the Cubs aim to continue their recent positive momentum and improve their standings in the NL Central. Fans can expect a finely balanced contest, with high stakes and standout performances on both sides of the diamond.