The Cincinnati Reds are set to face the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park this Friday evening, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:45 PM ET. As the Reds aim to move up the standings in the NL Central, they come into this game with a season record of 47-50, trailing the division-leading Brewers by eight games. The Nationals, holding a 44-53 record, also find themselves in fourth place in the NL East, 18.5 games behind the Phillies.
The Reds will be looking to leverage their status as favorites in this matchup, especially with Frankie Montas on the mound. Montas, who has a 4-7 record with a 4.38 ERA in 17 starts this season, will need to bounce back after giving up five earned runs in a seven-inning effort against the Colorado Rockies in his last outing. His counterpart for the Nationals, Patrick Corbin, comes into the game with a 4-9 record and a 5.57 ERA across 19 starts. Despite some struggles, including conceding at least one home run in each of his last four appearances, Corbin did pitch seven scoreless innings on June 24th and is projected to finish with five strikeouts in this game.
The Reds are riding some momentum, boasting a 4-1 record over their previous five away games. Conversely, the Nationals have struggled at home, going 2-3 over their last five games. Despite being marked as underdogs with a +105 money line and a projected 62% chance of victory, the Nationals have delivered a commendable 6-4 straight-up record as underdogs and hold a 46-34 run line record in such situations.
Offensively, both teams showcase contrasting dynamics. The Reds, averaging 4.5 runs per game, rank 14th in the league but have struggled with a batting average of .231, placing them 17th in on-base percentage and 25th in strikeouts. Spencer Steer has been a standout performer for the Reds, driving in 60 runs and hitting 15 homers, ranking him 10th best in RBIs in the MLB. The Nationals, meanwhile, are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which ranks 23rd in the league. At home, that average slightly improves to 4.2 runs per game. With a batting average of .239 and ranking 13th in on-base percentage, CJ Abrams leads the Nationals with 15 home runs and 48 RBIs, though he is currently 3/21 in his last five games.
In terms of recent form, the Reds are coming off a narrow loss against the Marlins, where they fell 3-2. Nick Lodolo allowed two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in that game, while Elly De La Cruz provided the early offense with a home run in the first inning. For the Nationals, the last game also ended in defeat, a 9-3 loss to the Brewers. Jake Irvin struggled significantly, giving up six earned runs in just four innings. However, the Nationals did secure two wins in their last three-game series against the Brewers.
Both teams will miss key players for this matchup. For the Reds, the absences of Joey Gallo, Luke Maile, and Matt McLain could prove significant. Similarly, the Nationals will be without Trevor Williams, Josiah Gray, and CJ Abrams, who have been crucial in various aspects of their game.
The over/under for Friday's game is set at nine runs. Historically, the Reds have struggled under these conditions with a 2-16-3 record when the over/under is set at nine runs. On the other hand, the Nationals have fared relatively better, boasting a 7-7-2 record in similar scenarios.
The versatility of both teams adds an intriguing layer to this matchup. With the Reds having a 5-5 record when playing as favorites and the Nationals balancing a 5-5 record against the run line as underdogs, fans can look forward to a competitive showdown. The Reds' commendable 53-44 record on the run line, and an impressive 30-14 run line performance on the road, further emphasizes their resilience this season. Against this backdrop, as the Reds and Nationals prepare to face off, all eyes will be on how each team maneuvers through these established dynamics to seize victory.